Last refreshed 18 Jun 2026 14:17 UTC

Should I Buy Bailey?

Data-driven buy/hold/sell analysis for FPL 2025/26.

Bailey (Midfielder, £5.5m) is the 174th highest-scoring midfielder in FPL 2025/26 with 21 points — an underowned differential worth considering. Our algorithm rates this transfer as HOLD with 45% confidence.

HOLD

Confidence: 45%

Aston Villa · Midfielder · £5.5m

Key Metrics

5.0

Current Form

Total Points

0.1%

Ownership

1.6

Pts/Game

Net Transfers

3.0

Avg FDR (Next 6)

Upcoming Fixtures

GW	Opponent	Venue	FDR

Alternatives

Similar-priced midfielders to consider instead.

Player	Club	Price	Form	Points	Owned
Madueke	ARS	£6.8m	11.0	72	0.8%
C.Jones	LIV	£5.4m	10.0	81	0.1%
M.Fernandes	WHU	£5.5m	9.0	135	0.6%
J.Palhinha	TOT	£5.5m	8.0	126	0.9%
Martinelli	ARS	£6.8m	7.0	57	0.9%

How We Calculate This

Transfer recommendations factor in form trajectory over the last 5 gameweeks, fixture swing across the next 6 matches (avg FDR: 3.0), price change probability based on net transfer volume (0 this GW), and ownership trends among all managers. The buy score combines current form, points per 90 minutes, fixture difficulty, and transfer momentum into a 0–100 confidence rating. Alternatives are filtered to the same position within ±£1.5m of Bailey's price and ranked by recent form. All data sourced from the official FPL API, refreshed every 3 hours.

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I buy Bailey in FPL?

Our analysis gives Bailey a HOLD rating (45/100). Current form: 5.0, price: £5.5m, ownership: 0.1%.

Will Bailey rise in FPL price?

Bailey has net 0 transfers out, suggesting price could drop.

Who should I get instead of Bailey?

Top alternatives at similar price: Madueke (£6.8m, form: 11.0), C.Jones (£5.4m, form: 10.0), M.Fernandes (£5.5m, form: 9.0).

Is Bailey worth a transfer hit in FPL?

At a 45% rating, Bailey is a reasonable free transfer but probably not worth a -4 hit unless you have no other fires to fight.

Is Bailey a good FPL differential?

Yes, at 0.1% ownership, Bailey is a strong differential who could provide significant rank gains if he delivers.

What are Bailey's upcoming fixtures?

Bailey's next 6 fixtures have an average difficulty of 3.0 out of 5. A mixed fixture run — timing your transfer carefully matters.

What is Bailey's expected minutes risk?

Bailey has played 450 minutes this season. Minutes are a concern — he may not be a guaranteed starter, which adds risk to buying him.

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