Last refreshed 19 Apr 2026 22:56 UTC

Should I Buy João Pedro?

Data-driven buy/hold/sell analysis for FPL 2025/26.

João Pedro (Forward, £7.7m) is the 3rd highest-scoring forward in FPL 2025/26 with 166 points and mixed fixtures ahead — form is a concern for current owners. Our algorithm rates this transfer as SELL with 30% confidence.

SELL

Confidence: 30%

Chelsea · Forward · £7.7m

Key Metrics

1.0

Current Form

166

Total Points

49.6%

Ownership

5.2

Pts/Game

-103,490

Net Transfers

3.0

Avg FDR (Next 6)

Upcoming Fixtures

GW	Opponent	Venue	FDR
GW33	Brighton	Away	Hard (4)
GW35	Nott'm Forest	Home	Easy (2)
GW36	Liverpool	Away	Hard (4)
GW37	Spurs	Home	Easy (2)
GW38	Sunderland	Away	Medium (3)

Alternatives

Similar-priced forwards to consider instead.

Player	Club	Price	Form	Points	Owned
Watkins	AVL	£8.6m	9.0	127	9.7%
Thiago	BRE	£7.3m	6.3	168	34.9%
Mateta	CRY	£7.5m	6.0	97	7.3%
Bowen	WHU	£7.7m	5.3	157	11.5%
Welbeck	BHA	£6.3m	4.0	110	8.7%

Analyst Notes

Sell signal: Form has dropped to 1.0 and 103,490 managers have transferred out this gameweek. A price drop may be imminent.

Season standout: Ranked 3rd among all forwards by total points (166). A proven performer who anchors many top-ranked squads.

How We Calculate This

Transfer recommendations factor in form trajectory over the last 5 gameweeks, fixture swing across the next 6 matches (avg FDR: 3.0), price change probability based on net transfer volume (-103,490 this GW), and ownership trends among all managers. The buy score combines current form, points per 90 minutes, fixture difficulty, and transfer momentum into a 0–100 confidence rating. Alternatives are filtered to the same position within ±£1.5m of João Pedro's price and ranked by recent form. All data sourced from the official FPL API, refreshed every 3 hours.

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I buy João Pedro in FPL?

Our analysis gives João Pedro a SELL rating (30/100). Current form: 1.0, price: £7.7m, ownership: 49.6%.

Will João Pedro rise in FPL price?

João Pedro has net 103,490 transfers out, suggesting price could drop.

Who should I get instead of João Pedro?

Top alternatives at similar price: Watkins (£8.6m, form: 9.0), Thiago (£7.3m, form: 6.3), Mateta (£7.5m, form: 6.0).

Is João Pedro worth a transfer hit in FPL?

With only a 30% rating, João Pedro is unlikely to recover the -4 cost quickly. Save your transfer or look at alternatives.

Is João Pedro a good FPL differential?

No, at 49.6% ownership João Pedro is a popular pick. He won't offer differential gains but is important to own if he hauls.

What are João Pedro's upcoming fixtures?

João Pedro's next 6 fixtures have an average difficulty of 3.0 out of 5. A mixed fixture run — timing your transfer carefully matters.

What is João Pedro's expected minutes risk?

João Pedro has played 2388 minutes this season. He is a regular starter with minimal rotation risk.

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